NEAFL Eastern Conference Finals preview

By Todd Davey

SYDNEY SWANS v AINSLIE

11:45am – BISP, Saturday 25th August

A huge qualifying final kicks off post-season action in the Eastern Conference this week, with last year’s Grand Finalists the Sydney Swans and Ainslie Tri-colours squaring off for the right to play league leaders Queanbeyan for a spot in the Grand Final.

The two teams have only met once this year, with the reigning premiers Ainslie taking out the round 4 clash by 26 points at Ainslie Oval.

Much has changed since that Grand Final re-match, with the Swans going on to dominate the competition, missing out on the top spot by a solitary game, while the Tri-colours form has been erratic at best.

One thing Ainslie has is plenty of big game players, with not only the NEAFL’s most dangerous forward line duo of Nic Paine and Ken McGregor, but the outside run and class of Marcus Crook, who was judged best-on-ground in the 2011 Eastern Conference Grand Final.

McGregor and Paine in particular have been in devastating form, kicking 32 goals in their past four matches.

However, the Swans are not without big names too, with Trent Dennis-Lane, Jesse White and Tommy Walsh all recapturing their best form towards the tail end of the season. It’s unclear whether their leading goal kicker Mitch Morton will play a role for the reserves or senior side come finals time, but if he’s available it’s a huge bonus for an already potent forward line.

Another big advantage the Swans have is the home-town. Although the game isn’t played at the SCG the Swans won’t have to travel to Canberra to face off against the Tri-colours. This will play right into the hands of the Sydney-siders as Ainslie have struggled when they have travelled throughout the season.

It’s hard to predict where this game will go. The Swans have looked irresistible at times this year, while Ainslie have had incredible highs and some devastating lows on their way to third spot on the ladder. What they do have though is an incredible record against the Swans, and will take plenty of confidence into the match with their early season win under the belt.

Despite their recent good fortunes against the Swans, the home side’s form looks much stronger than that of Ainslie’s and they should be able to win comfortably, which sets up the tantalising prospect of a Queanbeyan Sydney final.

SWANS BY 18 POINTS

EASTLAKE v HILLS EAGLES

2:00pm – Manuka, Sunday 26th August

The second and final match of the first post-season week sees Eastlake hosting the Hills Eagles in a cut-throat match-up where the winner progresses and the loser goes home.

Interesting to note that these sides played each other in the final round of the home and away season, meaning the teams will have extremely fresh knowledge about each other. The sides met twice overall throughout the regular season, with Eastlake taking both clashes by 32 and 35 points respectively.

The pleasing thing for the Demons is that they had a spread of 11 individual goal kickers in their final round win, alleviating some of the pressure that has been placed on their key targets. Bruce in particular, has had to carry the sides expectations at times throughout the year and will benefit greatly if his team mates can again step up and assist the gun forward.

Another point of interest coming out of the round 21 match up was the form of Scott Reed. Reed has played significant time down back for the Hills Eagles this year, but against Eastlake he was pushed forward, and he delivered big time, booting four goals. If Reed can have a similar impact, and deadly duo Ross Tungatalum and Ryan Houlihan can step up and hit the scoreboard it may just swing the balance of power in the Hills Eagles favour.

With the game being played at Manuka, the Demons have a distinct advantage. It’s a ground they know well, playing the majority of their home games at the Canberra stadium. Being the Hills Eagles first year in the NEAFL they will not have played Manuka as often and may not be familiar with the ground’s dimensions.

The Hills Eagles have defied all expectations this year, with many pundits saying the Sydney-siders will take a year or two to adjust to the travel and level of the NEAFL. Yet here they are in the finals race.

Eastlake conversely have been disappointing after starting the season in such promising fashion. The Demons dropped a game to the lowly placed Belconnen which derailed their double chance aspirations, but internally they will still be very confident of a Grand Final finish.

Recent form of the two teams suggests that Eastlake should take the points here, with a consistent, solid team across the ground. They don’t rely too heavily on star-power, as the Hills Eagles sometimes do. The key to this match up will be shutting Tungatalum down, if the Demons are able to limit the prolific Hills Eagle’s output, they should come away with the win.

EASTLAKE BY 24 POINTS

The Sydney Swans v Ainslie and Eastlake v Hills Eagles games will both be streaming live to www.neafl.com.au this weekend. Click here to watch.