Sydney Swans: the run home

By Michael DiFabrizio

AFL clubs know that finishing top two gives you the best possible chance to succeed in the finals.

First or second means you get two home finals, beginning with the cut-throat qualifying final against a fellow top four side. Win that, and you book a home preliminary final two weeks later.

Even if you lose, you get a second chance – at home – a week later.

Finishing third or fourth also sets you up nicely, with one home final and a second chance. It’s not as good as the top two, but it’s still a far better position to be in than missing the top four altogether.

So, with three weeks left in the season, where do the Swans stand in all this? Can they put themselves in the box seat and claim a top two spot?

Currently, they are in first place with 15 wins and a strong percentage of 146.6. However, there are two other teams on 15 wins in Adelaide and Collingwood, plus Hawthorn is only a game behind. West Coast are lurking below the top four.

The fixture:

Rd 21: vs. Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium), Sun 19 August
Rd 22: vs. Hawthorn (SCG), Sat 25 August
Rd 23: vs. Geelong Cats (Simonds Stadium), Sat 1 September

What happens if the Swans don’t win any of their last three games:

This is the worst case scenario. Mathematically, they can still fall as far back as seventh. While that’s unlikely, they’ll leave themselves vulnerable to a run by the Eagles as far as the top four is concerned.

What happens if the Swans win one of their last three games:

Beating the Western Bulldogs this weekend would virtually guarantee the Swans a spot in the top four. There’s only one side currently outside the top four that can reach 16 wins and that’s West Coast, who face Collingwood and Hawthorn in the final two weeks of the season. Even if the Eagles were to win all their remaining games, it’s highly unlikely they’ll catch the Swans on percentage.

Under this scenario, the top two is almost certainly out of reach, however. It would take both Adelaide and Collingwood also only winning just one of their last three.

What happens if the Swans win two of their last three games:

Hosting Hawthorn, who have the best percentage in the competition, and then travelling to Geelong are two very tough assignments. If the Swans split these games, a top four spot is locked and the top two becomes more likely, albeit slightly. If they lose to Hawthorn and both Adelaide and Collingwood win all their remaining games, the Swans can still end up in fourth.

If the sole loss is against the Bulldogs or Geelong rather than Hawthorn, then all it will take for the Swans to finish top two is for either Adelaide or Collingwood to drop one of their final three games.

What happens if the Swans win their final three games:

Start celebrating a minor premiership, Swans fans. Under this scenario, it would take some massive Adelaide or Collingwood wins for either side to catch up to the Swans on percentage.

For more Swans news visit sydneyswans.com.au