NSW/ACT Notebook: Round 14 preview

By Michael DiFabrizio

Sydney Swans vs. Carlton – Friday 7.50pm (SCG)

The Sydney Swans (8-3-1, 5th) will look to return to the winners list against Carlton (6-6, 9th).

It will be the first time the Swans go up against the Blues under new coach Mick Malthouse, who at Collingwood oversaw a heavy streak of wins against them.

Can Mick continue the run in different colours?

The first thing he’ll have to contend with is the curse of the bye.

It hit the Swans last week when they returned from the break and lost to Port Adelaide. They’ll be focussed after that performance, but there’s an element of the unknown to how Carlton will respond after their week off.

Eyes will still be on Kurt Tippett after his Swans debut last week. The key forward showed promising signs early before his influence faded, understandably given his long stint on the sidelines.

The Blues two weeks ago allowed Jarryd Roughead and Buddy Franklin to bag four goals each but have otherwise held opposition talls pretty well. The key, and Hawthorn succeeded in this, is to stretch their defence, which would ordinarily mean spreading the focus between Tippett, Sam Reid and resting forwards like Adam Goodes.

But with injuries to Reid and Goodes, not to mention goal scorer Lewis Jetta, it might be easier said than done this week.

Carlton average 14 more contested possessions per game than their opponents, ranked first and well ahead of the Swans in 10th. They also average five more inside 50s per game than the Swans.

It’s the turnovers that loom as being crucial, however. Goals from turnovers are increasing in importance every week and it’s something the Swans do better than the Blues – ranking fourth versus the Blues at 14th.

Going the other way, Carlton allow the fifth most goals from turnovers in the comp. Sydney allow the third least.

North Melbourne vs. GWS GIANTS – Sunday 3.20pm (Etihad Stadium)

North Melbourne (4-8, 13th) meet the GWS GIANTS (0-12, 18th) with both teams desperate to give their season a lift.

The GIANTS won’t have happy memories of travelling to play North. They were thumped in Round 2 last year by 129 points in Hobart.

Things were different in the return fixture in Round 23, however, with the GIANTS getting within 28 points at Skoda Stadium.

Thus far, both sides have been disappointing in 2013. But there is one legitimate excuse both teams can point to – the draw for the first 13 rounds.

The teams North have played have won 80 games in 2013, while the teams the GIANTS have played have won 78 and had one draw. Under this model, those are the worst two fixtures in the comp to date. (The teams Port Adelaide have played, for example, have won 56 games and had one draw.)

So perhaps things aren’t quite as bad as they might appear, although in the context of this game that’s a good and bad thing for the GIANTS.

North are a strong tackling side, so the GIANTS will need to watch their turnovers. North are also fairly damaging once they get it inside 50, so if Phil Davis is able to return this week that would definitely be timely.

Other players to watch include Tom Scully, who is finding good form for the GIANTS, and a trio of forwards who are each giving the Coleman Medal race a fair crack – Greater Western Sydney’s Jeremy Cameron and North Melbourne’s Lindsay Thomas and Drew Petrie.

Lastly, another intriguing aspect here, much like in the Swans-Blues game, is the curse of the bye. The GIANTS had the week off, North didn’t. Read into that what you will.

NSW/ACT Notes

Isaac Smith (Temora) will play his 50th AFL game if he returns to the Hawthorn side this week to face the Brisbane Lions on Sunday. He was due for the milestone last week but was a precautionary omission.

Dane Rampe (UNSW-ES Bulldogs) has gone from a curiosity to a big part of the Sydney Swans side. He’s had career-best games in terms of disposals, marks, tackles and inside 50s in the last month. He’s also had the third most one-percenters at the club this year.

Lenny Hayes (Pennant Hills) will need to pass a fitness test to return to the St Kilda side this week from his calf injury. He’s played just one game since Round 5.

NAB AFL U18s Championships (Round 4)

NSW/ACT vs. Queensland – Saturday 2.15pm (Visy Park)

NEAFL (Round 15)

Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions – Friday 2.00pm (Blacktown)
Tuggeranong vs. Belconnen – Saturday 2.00pm (Greenway)
Sydney Uni vs. Hills Eagles – Saturday 2.00pm (Henson)
Eastlake vs. Ainslie – Saturday 2.00pm (Star Track Oval)
Queanbeyan vs. UWS GIANTS – Sunday 11.45am (Dairy Farmers)