NSW/ACT Notebook: Grand Final Preview

The decider. The main stage. The big dance.

The match that all players play AFL to win. The Grand Final of Australia’s most loved game.

Though the players are yet to hit the ground and the opening siren has not yet sounded, the match has already started with many back-stories lending their name to this final game of the year.

If you hadn’t already heard, Lance “Buddy” Franklin will be playing against the same team he won a premiership with just last year, bringing even more theatre to this grandstand game. It has been touted as the AFL’s dream scenario – the man versus his former clan – and for lovers of the game, it will be the ultimate spectacle.

Likely to be matched against his good friend Josh Gibson, Buddy will be looking to make amends for his underwhelming performances against Hawthorn this year.

Kicking two goals and seven behinds in Sydney’s win over Hawthorn in Round Eight, and then three goals, five behinds in their loss in Round 18, Buddy’s accuracy against his old side will be important, but not entirely crucial. As we have learnt over the 2014 season, Sydney has a plethora of forward targets and midfield goal-sneaks who can get the job done, lending Buddy the chance to breathe, while most breathe down his neck.

Many expect Franklin to push up the ground into the midfield throughout the game, and all will be on the lookout for his famous 70 metre long bombs at goal, which would lift the non-existent roof off the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

In stark contrast to Sydney’s lead up to the game, Hawthorn have carried all the weight of injury woes heading into the match.

Cyril Rioli almost single handedly brought with him 23,816 people to last weekend’s VFL Grand Final to watch his first game in three months, which saw him come away unscathed. As such, Johnathan Simpkin has found himself labelled one of two hard-luck stories for the 2014 premiership game with Rioli taking back his position in the team. Many question whether or not this is a gamble considering his lack of match fitness, but as we know of Rioli, his mere presence will have an impact on the Hawthorn game.

Another controversial pick for the Hawks comes through Ben McEvoy taking the place of Johnathon Ceglar who has been Hawthorn’s ruckman since McEvoy was dropped after Round 21. Following Ceglar’s less than desired performance against Port Adelaide in the Preliminary Final, McEvoy reenters the team despite not playing alongside Rioli in the VFL Grand Final last week.

The underdone pairing of Rioli and McEvoy may well be the undoing of Hawthorn, but as we saw in 2012, the underdog will always bite in a Grand Final setting.

Sydney’s Ben McGlynn will finally get to play in a Grand Final after coming so close, yet so far on two previous occasions. McGlynn missed out on the 2008 winning Hawthorn squad, and then missed out again for Sydney two years ago when he failed to recover from a hamstring injury in time for the big game.

No football fan could forget McGlynn’s forlorn expression when John Longmire acknowledged his contribution to the 2012 campaign as his teammates accepted their premiership medallions post-victory. It is unlikely that there will be any player on the field that will want to win this game more than Ben McGlynn, and not one Sydney fan in the stands who would want anything less.  

Josh Kennedy – who finished just five votes behind Matthew Priddis in this week’s Brownlow Medal count – will also line up against the club he once called home. Undoubtedly one of Sydney’s most prolific players this season, Kennedy will go into Saturday’s clash as one of the favourites to take home the Norm Smith Medal.

Against the club where both his father and grandfather won multiple premierships in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, Kennedy’s performance in this midfield will be a likely indicator of Sydney’s performance. On the brown and gold side of the fence, Sam Mitchell will also act as Hawthorn’s performance barometer from the middle.

Even though big names such as Franklin and Rioli are contenders who can win a game off their own laces, there will be plenty more players on the field who can do exactly the same.

No less than 11 players from the NSW/ACT region will step out to play on Saturday afternoon. The Hawks’ roster boasts five individuals from north of the Victorian border – Luke Breust, Taylor Duryea, Will Langford, Isaac Smith and Matt Suckling – and all are set to play, with Breust and Smith lining up for their second premiership title.

The Sydney side consists of six players from New South Wales – Ben McGlynn, Craig Bird, Harry Cunningham, Dan Rampe and the two Co-Captains Kieran Jack and Jarrad McVeigh– and plenty can be said about the consistent fervor that these six bring to the table.

Sydney will go into this match at full strength. Despite being subbed off with a scare to the right knee in last week’s Preliminary Final against North Melbourne, Sam Reid has been named in Sydney’s starting squad. Being an injury that Reid has dealt with all year, he has been able to manage the knee and was training without strapping by Wednesday.

While Hawthorn have included Rioli and McEvoy, they have not listed Brad Sewell in their starting lineup, leading to the question of whether or not he has played his last senior game.

Jordan Lewis remains in the Hawthorn team having recovered from a corked thigh suffered in last week’s game.

Apart from the off-field statistics such as each side going for their third premiership win in 10 years, the on-field stats going into the game predict a tight contest.

Though Hawthorn average 13 more disposals per game, Sydney’s average of 12 more tackles looks set to combat this, as McGlynn and Luke Parker’s year long in-house tackle contest comes to a halt at the final siren. Inside 50s (57-55) and contested possessions (147-143) go to the Swans but clearances (41-39) and hit-outs (45-37) sway in favour of the Hawks.

With key statistics heading in both directions and the fact that only 2.1 percentage points separated the two sides at the end of 23 rounds, fans should be buckling into their seats for a feverish final.

Though many stories from both sides make up this Grand Final, the end chapter of the 2014 season will produce only one winner. Both sides will tell their story for years to come, but only one will be able to recount the game as a triumph. Whether it be the soaring Swans or the high flying Hawks, we will know by the final siren and song sung, as one side leaps and the other sinks in this last match of 2014.